000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 01N80W TO 04N90W TO 06N104W TO 
06N113W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 116W TO 120W AND NEAR 
4.5N124W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE N WATERS EXTENDING 
FROM 30N129W TO 20N140W. BOTH...A WINDSAT PASS AND A RECENT 
ASCAT DATA SHOW NW WINDS OF 20 KT W OF FRONT PARTICULARLY N OF 
28N AND S OF 22N. A SMALL AREA OF SW WINDS 20 KT IS SEEN AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO A POSITION FROM 
30N122W TO 21N135W IN 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. 
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF UP TO 20 FEET IS PROPAGATING INTO 
THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SWELL 
EVENT WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AS IT ADVANCES TO THE SE ACROSS THE 
MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH. A MAINLY WEAK 
PRES GRADIENT EXISTS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WITH 
ONLY AN AREA OF NE TRADES OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 12N W OF 120W. 
THE INTENSITY AND AREA OF TRADE WINDS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE 
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION 
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH GOES FROM 12N103W TO 03N106W. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE 
OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS PER AN ASCAT PASS. THIS 
FEATURE IS ALSO GENERATING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 06N TO 10N E OF TROUGH 
TO 98W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE IN APPROXIMATE 
24 HOURS.   

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 130W 
N OF 26N SUPPORTS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. A SUBTROPICAL 
JET STREAM WITH CORE WINDS OF 110-130 KT CROSSES THE AREA 
BETWEEN 18N AND 23N TURNING NE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDING OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS 
EXTENDING N ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WATER 
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IN PLACE 
WITHIN THE RIDGE. 

...GAP WINDS...
N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE 
AREA WEAKENS.

A MUCH EARLIER WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED N TO NE WINDS 
OF 20 TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND THESE WINDS WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS 
WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF 
ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE ADJACENT LANDMASS.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. A 0230 
UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT STRETCHING 
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA ALL THE WAY TO 02N83W. THESE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS AS THE TRADES IN THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA WEAKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR