000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190336
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 01N80W TO 04N90W TO 05N104W TO 
06N112W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 26N140W WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER 
FEATURE. EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES NOTED W TO NW WINDS 
OF 20 TO 25 KT W OF THE FRONT AND SIMILAR SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF UP TO 21 FEET IS 
PROPAGATING INTO THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BEHIND THE 
FRONT. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AS IT ADVANCES TO THE SE 
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. 

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE U.S. 
CALIFORNIA COAST TO 32N118W TO 15N115W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THIS 
RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...1015 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 
25N122W AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS THE 
HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

A MAINLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT EXISTS S OF 20N W OF 120W WITH ONLY 
A SMALL AREA OF NE TRADES OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 11N W OF 135W. 
THE INTENSITY AND AREA OF TRADES WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS HIGH PRES MOVES SE OF 32N140W TIGHTENING THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE ITCZ.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA 
EXTENDING FROM 18N103W TO 13N113W. AN UPPER LEVEL JET IS E OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT. 
SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE 
HAVE MANAGED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS 
OUT OF MANZANILLO MEXICO REPORT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT NEAR THIS 
FEATURE.

ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 14N102W TO 02N107W. AN
EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 
25 KT WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CONVECTION HAS ALSO 
INCREASED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 330 NM E OF THE TROUGH 
FROM 07N TO 10N...AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 07N 
TO 10N. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN APPROXIMATE 24 
HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO THE NW.

...GAP WINDS...
N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA 
WEAKENS.

A STALLED OUT FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
W OF THIS BOUNDARY N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED THROUGH 
THE PASSES OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. A RECENT 2336 UTC WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS 
CAPTURED N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT IN THIS REGION AND THESE 
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE 
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 
THE AIDE OF ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE ADJACENT LANDMASS.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. A 2332 
UTC WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 
25 KT STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA ALL THE WAY TO 01N84W. 
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN LESS THAN 48 
HOURS AS THE TRADES IN THE CARIBBEAN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY