000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182217
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 01N80W TO 04N90W TO 06N105W TO 
03N124W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N130W TO 26N140W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE 
COLD FRONT IS JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. A 1844 
UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED 20 TO 25 KT W OF THE FRONT WITH AN 
EARLIER WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING 20 TO 30 KT WINDS. SW 
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE ALSO OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N 
OF 26N. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS ALSO PROPAGATING INTO THE 
NW WATERS AND WILL PEAK AT AROUND 21 FEET ALONG AND N OF 30N 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE SE 
THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 19N TO 26N 
BETWEEN OLD MEXICO AND 120W WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATING VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER THIS REGION. ANOTHER 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THIS RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM 
19N104W TO 12N119W. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WITH SATELLITE DERIVED 
WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT IS JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS JET 
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MAINLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM 
THE ITCZ TO THE NE ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. 

A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 14N101W TO 10N105W TO 04N106W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 250 NM E OF 
TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N TO 13N. A 1706 ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS 
CAPTURED N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 210 NM W OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 
APPROXIMATE 24 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO 
THE NW.

...GAP WINDS...
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEEN 
DISCONTINUED AS NORTHERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT IN 24 HOURS.

A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES 
TO FUNNEL NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT IN THE E PACIFIC ACROSS 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE PASSES OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA 
RICA AS CAPTURED BY A 1526 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS WITH A 
SHIP ALSO REPORTING 25 KT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AND N 
TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY