000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181959 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU FEB 18 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS ALONG ...DISCUSSION... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 135W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N134W TO 23N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N123W TO 10N127W. A 110-120 KT JETSTREAM ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 22N140W TO 18N116W WHERE WINDS DECREASE TO 90-100 KT CONTINUING TO NEAR 21N105W AND THEN THROUGH NE MEXICO WHERE WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 120-130 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR IS FROM 15N-25N W OF 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 15N110W. THIS FEATURE IS IN PHASE WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS EXTENDING FROM 15N110W TO EQUATOR AT 108W. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL ACROSS ALL BUT NW MEXICO. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N124W...WITH WEAK RIDGE N OF 15N W OF 110W. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WEAKER TRADES AROUND 20 KT FROM 7N-13N W OF 125W. GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON, STRONG ELY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...25-30 KT...AND ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20 KT BY EARLY SAT. LARGE SWELLS ARE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COULD REACH UP TO 20 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI THEN DECREASE SOME ON SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ DGS