000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 02N78W TO 07N101W TO 06N111W TO 
04N124W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

THE BASE OF A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ENTERED 
THE NW PART OF THE LOCAL AREA N OF 25N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT HAS ALSO ENTERED THE AREA...AND EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO 
24N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 120 NM E 
OF THE FRONT. A WEAKENED DEEP LAYER RIDGE PREVAILS N OF 17N E OF 
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1018 
MB IS CENTERED NEAR 26N126W...WITH FRESH TRADES ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH S OF 13N AND N OF THE ITCZ. A MIDLATITUDE 
TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA TO ALONG 113W TO 12N. 
THIS FEATURE IS IN PHASE WITH A BROAD TROUGH S OF 10N. UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING FLANKS EITHER SIDE OF THIS BROAD TROUGH.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS ALREADY PROPAGATING INTO 
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS 
NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE S AND E ACROSS THE AREA 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS PEAKING AT 20 FEET ALONG AND N OF 30N.

...GAP WINDS...
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TODAY IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE 
VEERED...AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT ENE 
INTO THE SE US THROUGH FRI WHICH WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT AND DECREASE THE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. AS A RESULT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 
20 KT FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS CONTINUING 
TO FUNNEL NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT IN THE E PACIFIC ACROSS 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE PASSES OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA 
RICA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 
HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS OUT AND LINGERS IN THE 
SW CARIBBEAN SEA AS A SHEAR LINE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR 
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF ENHANCED 
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE ADJACENT LANDMASS. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT 
ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE GULF OF FONSECA...THESE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AND N 
TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AL