000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 02N78W TO 07N101W TO 06N111W TO 
04N124W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA 
EXTENDING FROM 32N136W TO 27N140W TO NEAR OAHU IN THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST E OF THIS FEATURE 
EXTENDING FROM 32N127W TO 13N138W WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG 
AND W OF 138W. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 12N120W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR S OF 30N BETWEEN THE 
TROUGH AXIS AND 133W. 

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN OLD MEXICO NEAR 
30N105W TO 11N94W WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING AN 
UPPER LEVEL JET WITH 90 TO 130 KT WINDS UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM 10N126W TO 18N103W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. 
THIS UPPER JET IS ADVECTING PLENTIFUL MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. 

AT THE SURFACE...1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N127W IS 
WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PART OF THE 
AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N136W TO 25N140W. THE NEXT SET OF LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL IS ALREADY PROPAGATING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A 1950 UTC 
JASON ALTIMETER PASS CAPTURED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 14 TO 
18 FT JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BORDER. THIS NEW SET OF NW 
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE S AND E ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS PEAKING AT 20 FEET ALONG AND N OF 30N.

A SHEAR AXIS IS LOCATED FROM NEAR 19N105W TO 11N114W. AN EARLIER 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT 
E OF THE AXIS. THIS FEATURE IS NOT CAPTURED WELL BY MODEL 
GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING MORE STABLE AND SUBSIDING AIR TO ITS W 
WHICH WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE FEATURE.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...TWO WEAK TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE 
ITCZ. THE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N101W TO 02N103W. ANY 
CONVECTION THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE HAS 
SINCE DISSIPATED. THE OTHER TROUGH IS TO THE WEST EXTENDING FROM 
12N109W TO 04N112W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH 
THIS FEATURE.

...GAP WINDS...
AN UNMARKED SHIP REPORTED 35 KT NE WINDS NEAR 14N95W AND GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THROUGH 18 UTC THU...EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
BY 00 UTC FRI.

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS CONTINUING 
TO FUNNEL NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT IN THE E PACIFIC ACROSS 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE PASSES OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA 
RICA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 
HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS OUT AND LINGERS IN THE 
SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE 
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF 
THE ADJACENT LANDMASS.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY TRADES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN 
THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA 
AND N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY