000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 03N78W TO 06N99W TO 05N102W TO 
05N110W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W TO 86W AND ALSO WITHIN 
120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM 
N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 107W 

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA 
EXTENDING FROM 32N137W TO 27N140W TO JUST N OF THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST E OF THIS FEATURE 
EXTENDING FROM 32N127W TO 20N134W WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW S AND W 
OF THERE. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 13N120W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR S OF 30N BETWEEN THE 
TROUGH AXIS AND 140W. 

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN OLD MEXICO NEAR 
27N104W TO 10N97W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET WITH 90 TO 130 KT 
WINDS UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGE AND EXTENDING FROM 15N116W TO THE 
U.S. GULF OF MEXICO STATES. THIS UPPER JET IS ADVECTING 
PLENTIFUL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE 
ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. 

AT THE SURFACE...1017 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N126W IS 
WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PART OF THE 
AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N138W TO 28N140W. THE NEXT SET OF LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL IS ALREADY PROPAGATING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS NEW 
SET OF NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE S AND E ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS PEAKING AT 20 FEET ALONG AND N OF 30N.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...TWO WEAK TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE 
ITCZ. THE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N109W TO 03N101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 06.5N. THE 
OTHER TROUGH IS TO THE WEST EXTENDING FROM 09N110W TO 02N112W 
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE.

...GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 
20 KT WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS CONTINUING 
TO FUNNEL NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT IN THE E PACIFIC ACROSS 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE PASSES OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA 
RICA AS CAPTURED BY A 1547 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THESE 
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE 
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS OUT AND LINGERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN 
SEA.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY TRADES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN 
THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA 
AND N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY