000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 03N77W TO 03N85W TO 06N101W TO 06N111W 
TO 04N116W TO 02N129W TO 04N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM 
N OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
N OF 26N...A WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED 
NEAR 28N124W EXTENDING N-NE...AND HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY E 
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. A SHARP AND NARROW UPPER TROUGH WAS 
DAMMED UP AGAINST THE W SIDE OF THE RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM 
36N125W TO 26N132W. LITTLE TO NO WEATHER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. TO THE W OF THIS TROUGH...ANOTHER 
S/W RIDGE WAS MOVING E AND HAS REACHED CROSSED 138W N OF 
28N...AHEAD OF A LARGE CYCLONIC VORTEX ACROSS THE N CENTRAL 
PACIFIC. S OF THESE FEATURES A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS 
ALONG 124W FROM 26N TO 13N...AND BROADENED AT THE BASE TO 
BETWEEN 118W AND 138W. MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WAS 
A SRN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM FROM NEAR 13N125W TO THE MEXICAN 
COASTLINE NEAR 22N106W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS EARLY THIS 
EVENING DEPICTED 70-90 KT WINDS IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH 
ACCELERATING TO 100-130 KT THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
AND ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS BROAD JET WAS PRODUCING A LARGE 
AND ELONGATED AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM 130W NE TO THE 
MEXICAN COAST AND WAS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF UPPER 
CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SHEARED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE 
ITCZ...ACROSS MUCH OF MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE N OF THE JET WAS PRODUCING A BROAD 
ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE N OF THE JET W OF 120W. SOME TRANSVERSE 
BANDING CONTINUES TO BE NOTED IN THE CIRRUS CLOUDS INDICATING 
POSSIBLE HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE. 

A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 33N129W WITH RIDGING 
COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W....AND WAS PRODUCING A 
SLOWLY SHRINKING AREA OF NELY TRADES 20-25 KT W OF 129W FROM 13N 
S OF THE ITCZ. SEAS IN THIS ZONE WERE RUNNING 10 TO 12 FT N 
MIXED NELY WIND SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. OTHERWISE...SEAS 
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ARE BEING DOMINATED BY SLOWLY SUBSIDING 
NW SWELL...AND SOME MIX OF SWLY SRN HEMI SWELL. SEAS WERE 
STILL RUNNING 9 TO 11 FT W OF 100W. 

STRONG HIGH PRES NW OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF 
OF MEXICO DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS HAS TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT 
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY 
DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO 20 KT NELY WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
STRIPLING