000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162224
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 02N78W TO 05N90W TO 04N100W TO 06N109W 
TO 04N116W TO 03N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 83W. SCATTERED TO 
LOCALLY NUMEROUS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 
180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GENERALLY PERSISTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS 
AFTERNOON. N OF 26N...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED 
NEAR 28N124W EXTENDING N-NE...AND HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY E 
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. A SHARP AND NARROW UPPER TROUGH WAS 
DAMMED UP AGAINST THE W SIDE OF THE RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM 
37N126W TO 26N133W. LITTLE TO NO WEATHER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. TO THE W OF THIS TROUGH...ANOTHER 
S/W RIDGE WAS MOVING E AND CROSSING 140W...AHEAD OF A LARGE 
CYCLONIC VORTEX ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. S OF THESE 
FEATURES A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS ALONG 124W FROM 26N TO 
13N...AND BROADENED AT THE BASE TO BETWEEN 118W AND 138W. MOVING 
AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WAS A SRN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM 
FROM NEAR 10N130W TO THE MEXICAN COASTLINE NEAR 22N106W. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS DEPICTED 70-90 KT WINDS IN THE BASE OF 
THE TROUGH ACCELERATING TO 100-130 KT THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
TIP OF BAJA AND ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS BROAD JET WAS 
PRODUCING A LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE 
FROM 140W NE TO THE MEXICAN COAST AND TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT 
AMOUNTS OF UPPER CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SHEARED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS 
FROM THE ITCZ...ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE N OF THE JET WAS PRODUCING A 
BROAD ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE N OF THE JET W OF 120W. SOME TRANSVERSE 
BANDING WAS NOTED IN THE CIRRUS CLOUDS INDICATING POSSIBLE HIGH 
LEVEL TURBULENCE. 

A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 32N129W WITH RIDGING 
COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W....PRODUCING AN AREA OF 
NELY TRADES 20-25 KT W OF 126W FROM 17N S OF THE ITCZ. SEAS IN 
THIS ZONE WERE RUNNING 10 TO 13 FT N MIXED NELY SWELL AND LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL. OTHERWISE...SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ARE 
BEING DOMINATED BY SLOWLY SUBSIDING NW SWELL...AND SOME MIXED OF 
SWLY SRN HEMI SWELL. SEAS WERE STILL RUNNING 9 TO 11 FT W OF 
100W. 

STRONG HIGH PRES NW OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF 
OF MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... 
RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHAUNTEPEC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
THU MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO 
20 KT NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
STRIPLING