000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 4N77W 5N90W 6N110W 4N125W 3N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA W OF AROUND 130W. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS 
FROM 32N131W TO 29N133W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE 
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS N OF 29N 
BETWEEN 115W-125W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
27N125W TO 15N123W TO 5N118W...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW E OF 
THE TROUGH. A 95-100 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 13N129W TO 
19N120W WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 110-120 KT THE ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA AND THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO. EXCEPT FOR THE 
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF 
THE ATMOSPHERE IS N OF THE JET. OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE 
WITHIN 600 NM S OF THE JET. SOME TRANSVERSE BANDING IS NOTED ON 
THE CIRRUS CLOUDS INDICATING POSSIBLE HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD.

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 32N128W WITH 
RIDGING COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE LARGE SWELLS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SUBSIDED SOME...BUT ARE STILL 8 TO 
12 FT W OF 105W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ 
WITH AXIS ALONG 10N109W TO 3N110W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH FROM 7N-10N.

STRONG HIGH PRES W OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF 
OF MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO 
RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU.
ALSO 20 KT ELY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS