000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 03N78W TO 03N84W TO 04N92W TO 03N99W TO 
06N110W TO 06N124W TO 04N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 105W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASINGLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED N 
OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W...WITH BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGHS CENTERED AT HIGHER LATITUDES ON EITHER SIDE. OTHERWISE 
THE AREA WAS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FROM 
10N-22N...AND W OF 100W. AN 85-105 KT JETSTREAM ABOUT 350 NM 
WIDE EXTENDED FROM 12N137W E-NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO THE 
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 19N105W...WITH AN EMBEDDED AND SUBTLE S/W 
RIDGE ALONG 115/116W. THIS SRN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM THEN 
CONTINUED NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE BASE OF 
THE LARGE AND BROAD ERN U.S. UPPER CYCLONE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WERE BEING TRANSPORTED WITHIN THE 
JET...AND ALSO SHEARING AWAY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM MODERATE 
CONVECTION OCCURRING N OF THE ITCZ. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
STABLE AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA N OF THE 
JETSTREAM W OF 115W...WHERE UPPER CONVERGENCE WAS OCCURRING OUT 
AHEAD AND TO THE S OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. S OF 
THE JET ENTERING SW PORTIONS...NWLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING 
UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 100W. UPPER 
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE ITCZ E OF 95W HAD DECREASED IN THE PAST 
SEVERAL HOURS LEADING TO A DECREASING TREND IN CONVECTION. 

CENTERED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WAS A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH 
NEAR 32N130W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 115W. 
A SLOWLY SHRINKING ZONE OF NELY TRADES S OF THE HIGH WERE AROUND 
20 KT FROM 06N TO 17N W OF 126W PER AFTERNOON ASCAT PASSES. SEAS 
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY LARGE NW 
SWELLS...WITH HIGHEST SEAS OF 11 TO 14 FT N OF 10N W OF 110W. 

ANOTHER COLD FRONT HAS MOVED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE 
GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE 
FRONT...AND HAS REACHED THE SRN GULF COAST OF MEXICO...WHERE THE 
PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTEN. STRONG NLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO BLOW 
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND 
WILL INCREASE FURTHER IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...REACHING GALE 
FORCE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL 
AMERICAN COAST...ELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHILE NLY FLOW NEAR 20 KT 
WILL FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
STRIPLING