000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152216
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 03N77W TO 03N84W TO 05N92W TO 03N100W TO 
06N110W TO 06N130W TO 04N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING S OF 07N BETWEEN 84W AND 92W. ISOLATED 
TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM S 
AND 120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 106W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASINGLY HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE PERSISTED N OF 
24N BETWEEN 120W AND 133W...WITH BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGHS CENTERED AT HIGHER LATITUDES ON EITHER SIDE. OTHERWISE 
THE AREA WAS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FROM 
05N-25N...AND W OF 90W. AN 85-105 KT JETSTREAM ABOUT 300 NM WIDE 
EXTENDED FROM 13N132W E-NE ACROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 
19N105W...WHERE WINDS THEN ACCELERATED TO 120-125 KT ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WERE S 
OF THE JET TO 04N W OF 108W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE 
AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA N OF THE 
JETSTREAM W OF 125W...WHERE UPPER CONVERGENCE WAS OCCURRING OUT 
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. S OF 12N...A PAIR 
WEAK NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGHS WERE ALONG 108/109W AND 
86/87W...BOTH QUASISTATIONARY...AND PRODUCING UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
TO MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 110W. 

CENTERED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WAS A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH 
NEAR 31N129W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 110W. 
A SLOWLY SHRINKING ZONE OF NELY TRADES S OF THE HIGH WERE AROUND 
20 KT FROM 06N TO 17N W OF 126W PER AFTERNOON ASCAT PASSES. SEAS 
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY LARGE NW 
SWELLS...WITH HIGHEST SEAS OF 11 TO 14 FT N OF 10N W OF 110W. 

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL 
TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO SHORTLY... 
RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC 
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
STRIPLING