000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 03.5N77W TO 04N84W TO 03N91W TO 07N105W TO 
04.5N118W TO 04.5N134W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS AND 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W 
AND 94W. 

...DISCUSSION...
PREDOMINANTLY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA 
BETWEEN 12N AND 24N. N OF 24N......BROAD RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS 
THE W PART OF THE AREA...WHILE THE TAIL END OF A POSITIVELY 
TILTED TROUGH IS FOUND IN THE FAR E PORTION OF THE AREA WITH 
AXIS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP SHIFT A COLD 
FRONT E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE GALE 
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...DISCUSSED BELOW IN GAP 
WINDS SECTION. S OF 12N...THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES...ONE 
OVER THE E PORTION OF THE AREA AND ONE OVER THE W PORTION OF THE 
AREA. CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING THESE UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGES...AND HELPING FUEL THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WHICH TRACKS 
OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 10N AND  20N...EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN 
MEXICO AND S FLORIDA. BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES IS A WEAK BROAD 
TROUGH...WITH AXIS NEAR 110W...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN 
HEMISPHERE. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE 1024 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 32N130W 
AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. TRADES OF 20 KT OR HIGHER 
ARE FOUND FROM 16N TO 22N W OF 125W. THIS IS DUE TO A LOCALLY 
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND 
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE ITCZ DUE TO ENHANCED CONVECTION 
JUST W OF 140W. 

SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY LARGE 
NWLY SWELLS...WITH MOST OF THE AREA N OF 12N AND W OF 110W IN 
EXCESS OF 12 FT ATTM. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN FIRMLY 
ENTRENCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND SHIFT JUST SLIGHTLY 
E AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW BRINGS A STRONG 
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO NW PORTIONS BY WED. 

GAP WINDS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
TODAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHAUNTEPEC LATE TONIGHT. 

WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. 
THESE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE 20 KT AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES 
PREVAILING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE GAPS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AL