000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150340 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON FEB 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 02N78W TO 04N83W TO 06N106W TO 05N113W TO 05N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED TO MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 91W, SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 210N NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 91W TO 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 10N W OF 131W ALONG THE E OR TRAILING SIDE OF A PAIR OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS THAT HAVE MOVED W OF 140W. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WAS CENTERED ALONG 130W N OF 24N... SPANNING BETWEEN 137W AND 121W. AN ASSOCIATED 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PERSISTED NEAR 31N131W. A FAST AND ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW GENERALLY DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AT UPPER LEVELS. BROAD AND LARGE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW CAN BE FOUND N OF 25-28N ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RIDGE...INFRINGING UPON FAR NW AND NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. S OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATING MUCH OF THE U.S. WAS A BROAD 90-110 KT JETSTREAM HAS EXITING THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND HAS SHIFTED INTO THE W ATLC. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. HAS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE U.S. WHICH HAS PUSHED A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ALIGNED NEARLY W TO E ACROSS NRN BAJA ALONG 28N. A SRN STREAM UPPER JET SEGMENT WAS APPROACHING SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM 10-17N AND WAS COMBINING WITH A WEAK AND SUBTLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH S OF 10N ALONG ABOUT 120W TO PRODUCE A BROAD ZONE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE SUSTAINING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 130W AND 146W. THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE OCCURRING WITH AND JUST BEHIND A CLOSE PAIR OF LLVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS CENTERS CURRENTLY NEAR 06N143W AND 03.5W147W. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING S OF 12N BETWEEN 85W AND 93W AND OCCURRING JUST UPSTREAM FROM UPPER RIDGING ACROSS NRN S AMERICA AND THE E CARIBBEAN WAS ALSO INDUCING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 106W...WHERE EL NINO RELATED WARM SST ANOMALIES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. A STRONG S/W N OF 25N WAS APPROACHING 150W AND WILL MOVE ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS COMING WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N131W HAS A RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE RIDGE HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS AND WAS NOW YIELDING NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT FROM 15N TO 20N W OF 125W...AND ALSO FROM THE ITCZ N TO 11N W OF 125W BASED ON EARLY AFTERNOON ASCAT PASSES. A MODEST PRES GRADIENT E OF THE SURFACE HIGH WAS ALSO PRODUCING AN AREA OF N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 22N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W...WITH STRONGER WINDS TO THE N ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY LARGE NWLY SWELLS...WITH MOST OF THE AREA N OF 10N AND W OF 110W IN EXCESS OF 12 FT ATTM. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND SHIFT JUST SLIGHTLY E AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW BRINGS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO NW PORTIONS BY WED. MODERATE TO STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW E OF 110W COMBINED WITH A RESURGENCE IN GAP WINDS...DISCUSSED BELOW...HAS INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 106W. HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED E AND AS A RESULT...WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT . HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MON AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC LATE MON NIGHT. ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING