000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142224
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 05N77W TO 05N80W TO 07N85W TO 04N96W TO 
06N107W TO 04N114W TO 04N126W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY 
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING 
WITHIN 180 NM S AND 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. 
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING 
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS ELSEWHERE E OF 104W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM S AND 60 NM N OF 
AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED ALONG 132W N OF 
24N THIS AFTERNOON...SPANNING BETWEEN 138W AND 123W. FAST AND 
ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW GENERALLY DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA AT UPPER LEVELS. BROAD AND LARGE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW 
CAN BE FOUND N OF 25-28N ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS 
RIDGE...INFRINGING UPON FAR NW AND NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. S OF 
THE BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATING MUCH OF THE U.S. 
WAS A BROAD 90-110 KT JETSTREAM WAS EXITING MEXICO AND MOVING 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC FLOWING EXTENDING FROM 
THE TROPICAL SE PACIFIC EXTENDED ACROSS THE EQUATOR CENTERED 
ALONG 110-115W AND WAS AIDING IN VENTILATING ITCZ CONVECTION 
BETWEEN 132W AND 145W. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NEAR 
95W OCCURRING JUST UPSTREAM FROM THE RIDGING ACROSS NRN S 
AMERICA AND THE E CARIBBEAN WAS ALSO INDUCING UPPER DIVERGENCE 
AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 
105W...WHERE EL NINO RELATED WARM SST ANOMALIES HAVE DEVELOPED 
IN THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. A STRONG S/W N OF 25N WAS APPROACHING 
150W AND WILL MOVE ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS COMING 
WEEK. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 30N130W WITH A 
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE RIDGE HAS 
WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS AND WAS NOW YIELDING NE TRADES 
OF 20-25 KT FROM 15N TO 22N W OF 125W...AND ALSO FROM THE ITCZ N 
TO 10N W OF 125W BASED ON EARLY AFTERNOON ASCAT PASSES. A MODEST 
PRES GRADIENT E OF THE SURFACE HIGH WAS ALSO PRODUCING AN AREA 
OF N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 25N BETWEEN 119W AND 124W...WITH 
STRONGER WINDS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
COAST. 

SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY LARGE 
NWLY SWELLS...WITH MOST OF THE AREA N OF 10N AND W OF 110W IN 
EXCESS OF 12 FT ATTM. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN FIRMLY 
ENTRENCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND SHIFT JUST SLIGHTLY 
E AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW BRINGS A STRONG 
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO NW PORTIONS BY WED. 

MODERATE TO STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW E OF 110W COMBINED WITH 
A RESURGENCE IN GAP WINDS...DISCUSSED BELOW...HAS INCREASED LOW 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE 
ITCZ E OF 105W.

HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED E AND 
AS A RESULT...WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DECREASED TO 
20-25 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DROP TO 20 KT OR LESS 
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MON AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 
GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC LATE MON NIGHT. ELY WINDS 
20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
STRIPLING