000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 5N77W 7N85W 5N105W 4N115W 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AND 120 NM 
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 82W-89W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 
95W-105W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 120W-135W.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN S OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO 10N...WITH A 95-105 KT JETSTREAM 
ALONG 20N FROM 140W TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER 
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS NEARLY ALL THE AREA W OF 105W 
EXCEPT FOR MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SW CORNER OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE 
ITCZ. S OF 10N A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS W OF 130W WITH AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH S OF 10N ALONG 120W.

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 31N129W WITH A 
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 113W. THE RIDGE HAS 
WEAKENED SOME AND THE TRADES ARE AROUND 20 KT FROM 15N-21N W OF 
124W. HOWEVER LARGE SWELLS COVER THE AREA W OF 110W WITH SWELLS 
UP TO 17 FT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. A COUPLE OF TROUGHS 
ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST IS FROM 9N105W TO 2N106W.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THE TROUGH. SECOND TROUGH FROM
10N136W TO 3N139W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 
138W-140W.

STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW E OF 103W COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE 
IN GAP WINDS...DISCUSSED BELOW...HAS INCREASED LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 81W-104W.

HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED E AS 
A RESULT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DECREASED TO 20 
KT AND EXPECTED TO GO BELOW 20 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
MON AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHAUNTEPEC LATE MON NIGHT. ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON THEN DECREASE TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS