000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141001 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN FEB 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE FROM 06N77W TO 06.5N83W TO 04.5N98W TO 03.5N110W TO 07N134W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM N OF AXIS AND 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS OCCURRED FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. WINDS ARE NOW MAINLY ZONAL N OF 10N AS OPPOSED TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE PATTERN THAT PREVAILED THERE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY N OF 10N HAS DECREASED. A COUPLE OF MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW REMAIN S OF 10N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 07N136W TO 17N134W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1024 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 31.5N127W AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. TRADES ABOVE 20 KT ARE FOUND IN A COUPLE OF AREAS. THE FIRST AREA IS DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. THE SECOND IS ALONG A LOCALLY TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND TROUGHING EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW E OF 103W COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN GAP WINDS...DISCUSSED BELOW...HAS INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 81W AND 103W. STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM LATENT HEAT RELEASE IS RESULTING IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND ADVECTION OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND KINETIC ENERGY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...DEPICTED WELL IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND SATELLITE DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS. WITH PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW...AND PERHAPS JUST WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT N OF 10N THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE W. TRADES OF 20 KT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED W OF 130W BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WHICH GRADUALLY SHIFTS W THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE W AND DECREASING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...A FRONTAL TROUGH THAT DISSIPATED OVER NW WATERS YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT LONG PERIOD NW SWELL SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA W OF 110W. THIS NW SWELL WILL RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8 TO 14 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 100W BY MON EVENING. GAP WINDS... WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE VEERED AND CAA INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DECREASED. AS A RESULT...THE GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLIER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MON...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE 20 KT MON NIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE LATE MON NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND IS CURRENTLY AS FAR SOUTH AS COSTA RICA. THIS HAS INCREASED WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 20 KT. THE WINDS OVER THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL REACH PANAMA EARLY TODAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AL