000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140325 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN FEB 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE FROM 07N76W TO 05N102W TO 03N110W TO 09N135W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 105W. ...DISCUSSION... THE PREVIOUSLY WELL ORGANIZED DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL FORECAST WATERS HAS COME UNRAVELED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW NOW FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. THE ASCAT PASSES FROM 1710 AND 1850 UTC SHOW THE AREA OF 20 KT TRADE WINDS HAS BEEN REDUCED DRAMATICALLY COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE STRONGEST NE WINDS ARE NOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 17N130W TO 07N135W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 30N129W IS INDUCING 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH SHIP OBSERVATIONS A8ID9 REPORTING 20 KT WITH 19 FT SEAS NEAR 19N138W AND SHIP VRZN9 REPORTING 24 KT WINDS AND 21 FT SEAS NEAR 15N137W AT 0000 UTC CONFIRMING THE ASCAT PASSES. WAVE WATCH IS RUNNING 6 TO 8 FT LOWER WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS HERE THAN THESE TWO OBSERVATIONS REVEAL. THIS IS NOT COMPLETELY SURPRISING GIVEN THAN THE GFS IS RUNNING 5 KT TO 10 KT TOO WEAK WITH THE NE WINDS HERE IN THIS REGION OF NW SWELL. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...DISSIPATING ON MON. FRESH TRADES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WATERS W OF 130W FROM 15N TO 21N SUN AND MON. FARTHER W...SHIP OBSERVATION A8JH9 ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 29N117W REPORTED WINDS JUST BELOW 20 KT AT 0000 UTC DESPITE THE 1706 ASCAT PASS SHOWING THE WINDS HAD SLACKENED NEAR SHORE. THIS NARROW BAND OF 20 KT WINDS IS THE RESULT OF A STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED 1021 MB HIGH AND ENHANCED TROUGHING EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WHICH IS WEDGED BETWEEN THE PACIFIC HIGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GRADIENT IS ALSO INDUCING 20 KT NW TO N WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE PACIFIC HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL SHIFT W OVER NE WATERS THROUGH SUN...CARRYING THE BELT OF N WINDS W WITH IT. BY LATE SUN...THE TROUGHING E OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES E. THIS WILL SHIFT THE 20 KT WINDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN NIGHT...WITH BOTH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NE WATERS EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT BY MON AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...A FRONTAL TROUGH THAT DISSIPATED OVER NW WATERS YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT LONG PERIOD NW SWELL SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA W OF 115W. THIS NW SWELL WILL RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8 TO 14 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 100W BY MON EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY AS HIGH AS 19 FT IN FAR NW WATERS WHERE THE NEWEST SURGE OF NW SWELL IS ENTERING THE REGION. THIS SURGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT IS STALLING JUST NW OF FORECAST WATERS AND IS NOT EXPECTED INCREASE WINDS TO 20 KT. GAP WINDS... SHIP C6NZ3 REPORTED 27 KT WINDS AND 10 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 14.5N95W AT 0000 UTC. BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION AND MODEL DATA...THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 0000 UTC. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A NEW ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE S THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC MON AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ABOVE 20 KT EARLY MON EVENING...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET. THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE GALE TO TEHUANTEPEC EARLIER TODAY HAS PROGRESSED S INTO NORTHERN COSTA RICA THIS EVENING AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO TO 20 KT NW OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD...TURNING THE WIND DIRECTION THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA MORE EASTERLY THAN NORTHERLY. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE WINDS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA SUN...BUT LOOK FOR 20 TO 25 KT WINDS TO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. N WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER COSTA RICA CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER