000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132210
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE 
FROM 04N77W TO 08N88W TO 06N110W TO 05N125W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ 
AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 92W WHILE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN 
BE FOUND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 
105W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE PREVIOUSLY WELL ORGANIZED DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL 
FORECAST WATERS HAS COME UNRAVELED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH 
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW NOW FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. THE ASCAT PASSES 
FROM 1710 AND 1850 UTC SHOW THE AREA OF 20 KT TRADE WINDS HAS 
BEEN REDUCED DRAMATICALLY DURING THAT TIME. THE STRONGEST NE 
WINDS ARE NOW ASSOCIATED WITH TWO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE 
FOUND NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 10N132W TO 06N135W AND THE OTHER TO THE 
NORTH FROM 18N131W TO 12N132. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE 
TROUGHS AND 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 30N128W IS INDUCING 
20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS NEAR THESE TROUGHS...WITH SHIP OBSERVATION 
A8ID9 CONFIRMING THESE WINDS NEAR THE NORTH TROUGH BY REPORTING 
22 KT WITH 13 FT SEAS NEAR 18N139W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST EARLIER TODAY SHOWED 20 KT N 
WINDS THAT ARE NOW BELIEVED TO HAVE SHIFTED W WITH THE HIGH 
CENTER. THE 1706 ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE WINDS HAVE SLACKENED NEAR 
SHORE. THE GRADIENT WINDS HERE WILL PERSIST OVER NE WATERS 
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL SHRINK IN SIZE MON AS THE 
TROUGHING E OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL IS WEAKENED. 
CURRENTLY...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED 
SURFACE HIGH AND THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRES TO THE W OF THE HIGH 
PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS BROUGHT 20 
KT NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THE PRES GRADIENT 
WILL SLACKEN SUN AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS E AND 
THE HIGH IN THE PACIFIC SHIFTS W. 20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA UNTIL MON AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...A FRONTAL TROUGH THAT DISSIPATED OVER NW WATERS 
YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT LONG PERIOD NW SWELL SE THROUGH MUCH OF 
THE FORECAST AREA W OF 120W. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 
CURRENTLY AS HIGH AS 18 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 128W AND 137W. THIS 
NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE...RAISING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8 TO 
14 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W BY MON EVENING. 

GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH THIS 
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE GALE TO TEHUANTEPEC HAS 
PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND WINDS HAVE 
INCREASED IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO TO 20 KT NW OF 
THE FRONT. LOOK FOR N WINDS TO PICK UP TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SCHAUER