000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131607
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 04N77W TO 
08N87W TO 06N95W TO 07N100W TO 06N105W TO 05N123W TO 06N135W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 
104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM 
N OF AXIS W OF 130W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 01N TO 09N BETWEEN 82W AND 
90W. 

...DISCUSSION...
EL NINO RELATED STRONG UPPER LEVELS WLYS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. NORTH OF 10N AND W OF 125W...THE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW WAS W TO W-NW ...WITH MINOR INTRUSIONS OF THE TAIL OF 
TROUGHS FROM THE HIGHER LATITUDES SWEEPING ACROSS N 
PORTIONS...THE MOST NOTABLE PRODUCING A NARROW ZONE OF 
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE N OF 27.5N BETWEEN 129W AD 133W. TO 
THE E...SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS FROM JUST WEST OF 
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA EXTENDING S THEN S-SW AND CROSSING 
THE EQUATOR AT 116W. PV ANALYSIS ON U OF ALBANY WEB SITE 
INDICATES THE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOUR...AND AS 
A RESULT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ HAS WEAKENED 
SOMEWHAT AND SHIFTED E. JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL 
VORT CENTER NEAR 21N117W WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS MEXICO... 
PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS AND AIDING IN THE 
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH. DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS ACROSS NRN S AMERICA EXTENDING N ACROSS 
THE E HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK AND SUBTLE MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR EPAC WAS ALONG 86/87W AND HELPING TO 
MAINTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION THERE ALONG AND TO THE N OF THE 
ITCZ. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WAS NOW LOCATED ALONG 21N129W TO 
14N131W. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AND SHOULD DAMPEN 
OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED 
NEAR 30N127W. THE STRONGEST TRADES ARE FOUND BETWEEN THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE TROUGH AS 
INDICATED BY AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS. A TIGHT PRESSURE BETWEEN 
THE SURFACE HIGH AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SIERRA 
MADRE OCCIDENTALES HAS RESULTED IN 20 TO 25 KT NLY WINDS THROUGH 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND JUST TO THE WEST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LAST 
NIGHT HAS DISSIPATED. NW SWELLS GENERATED BEHIND THE FRONT 
CONTINUE TO SPREAD S AND E...AND AREA MERGING ACROSS E PORTIONS 
WITH LONG PERIOD SWLY SWELLS COMING FROM THE SRN HEMISPHERE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. WITH THE TROUGH DAMPENING OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...THE COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL DECREASE 
SLIGHTLY...WITH 20 KT WINDS GENERALLY CONFINED W OF 122W IN THE 
TRADEWIND BELT. 

GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE THIS 
MORNING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE THIS 
AFTERNOON AS AS WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO VEER AND DECREASES 
THE COLD AIR FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN 30 HOURS.  

THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS RESULTED IN GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND 
INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN 
WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON...AND THE GULF OF PANAMA TOMORROW. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
STRIPLING