000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 04N77W TO 06N88W TO 
04N106W TO 06N132W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W 
AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 102W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ALOFT WITH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE 
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 02N116W. PV ANALYSIS ON U OF ALBANY 
WEB SITE INDICATES THE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 
HOUR...AND AS A RESULT...SO HAS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A LOW LEVEL 
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOW LOCATED ALONG 18N127W TO 
12N131W. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AND SHOULD DAMPEN 
OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1023 MB IS 
CENTERED NEAR 31N127W. THE STRONGEST TRADES ARE FOUND BETWEEN 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE TROUGH AS 
INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. A TIGHT PRESSURE BETWEEN THE 
SURFACE HIGH AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE 
OCCIDENTAL HAS RESULTED IN 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...AND JUST TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE COLD 
FRONT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS DISSIPATED. 
SWELLS GENERATED BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SPREAD S AND E.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. WITH THE TROUGH DAMPENING OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...THE COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL DECREASE 
SLIGHTLY...WITH 20 KT WINDS GENERALLY CONFINED W OF 122W IN THE 
TRADEWIND BELT. 

GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO VEER AND 
DECREASES THE COLD AIR FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN 36 HOURS.  

THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS RESULTED IN GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE E INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS 
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO IN 24 HOUR...AND THE GULF OF PANAMA IN 48 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AL