000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 3N77W 6N90W 3N105W 5N120W 1N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...N OF AROUND 27N W OF 135W. A 90-110 KT 
JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N140W TO 26N128W. EXCEPT FOR 
SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE JUST E OF THE TROUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS OVER THE 
AREA W OF 125W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH
AXIS FROM 32N120W TO 25N120W. A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM E TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N95W. A 105-110 KT 
JETSTREAM IS OVER NE MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DEEP
TROPICS EXTENDS FROM 20N114W TO 14N118W TO THE EQUATOR AT 120W.
SW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

A 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N125W. A TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN
20-25 KT TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA FROM 5N TO 22N W OF 120W.
LARGE SWELLS ARE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 20 FT BY TONIGHT AND SAT. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS BLANKETS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W.

COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS S A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WINDS COULD
REACH GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING LATER 
TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS