000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG THE LINE 
02N78W TO 06N103W TO 12N115W TO 04N130W TO 03N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ALONG ITCZ ASIDE FROM 
THAT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 
14N112W TO 07N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 
450 NM E OF THIS TROUGH FROM 09N TO 14N AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF 
THIS TROUGH FROM 07N TO 09N.

...DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATES THE 
FORECAST AREA...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EQUATOR AT 105W AND 
EXTENDING NE TO THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER SEPARATING TROUGHING 
FROM A DISSIPATING UPPER LOW NEAR 03N89W FROM A POSITIVELY 
TILTED MEAN TROUGH FROM W TEXAS SW TO NEAR 26N1118W AND S TO THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 125W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH STEMS 
FROM AN UPPER LOW THAT PASSED SOUTH ALONG THE MEXICO/ARIZONA 
BORDER S OF PHOENIX THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO 
PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. IN 
TURN...THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE 
AMPLIFIED PORTION OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC. A SURFACE 
TROUGH REFLECTION OF THIS STRONG MID TO UPPER TROUGHING IS 
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 14N112W TO 07N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CURRENTLY LIES WITHIN 450 NM E OF THIS TROUGH FROM 
09N TO 14N AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THIS TROUGH FROM 07N TO 09N. 
THIS CONVECTION LIES WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT REGION IN THE REAR 
RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET AND BETWEEN THE MEAN TROUGHING 
THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE E. THIS MEAN 
TROUGHING WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH PASSING E INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN 
U.S. CARRYING THE STRONG UPPER JET WITH IT ON ITS LEADING EDGE 
AND LEAVING THE ENERGY OVER PACIFIC WATERS BEHIND. IN TURN...THE 
VERTICAL LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET 
WILL DIMINISH AS WILL THE CONVECTION AND THE STRENGTH OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH HERE. 

A 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 27N126W IS PRODUCING A TIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ 
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EMBEDDED IN IT...RESULTING IN A 
VERY BROAD ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES FROM 05N TO 21N W 
OF 110W. THE ASCAT PASSES FROM 1752 AND 1932 UTC ALSO REVEALED 
STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SECOND TROUGH FROM 15N126W TO 
09N132W. ASCAT CAPTURED N TO NE WINDS TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE 
WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE FIRST TROUGH AND WITHIN 360 NM NW OF THE 
TROUGH. THE GALE WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT EARLIER TODAY HAS 
NOW EXPIRED. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS AS THE TROUGHING ALOFT DECOUPLES.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE 
FROM THE HIGH NEAR 27N126W JUST W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE 
TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAS BROUGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 
20 KT W OF THE BAJA TO 120W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT 
HERE BY EVENING AS THE TROUGHING SHIFTS E. THE STRONGEST PRES 
GRADIENT WILL ALSO SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOOK FOR NW 
TO N WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SAT EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NW WATERS. 20 KT SW 
WINDS ARE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL DIMINISH 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING AHEAD OF FRONT 
AND WILL QUICKLY RAISE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN NW WATERS TO 
22 FEET BY FRI EVENING.

GAP WINDS...
THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING IN THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY TOMORROW EVENING AND WILL REACH JUST BELOW STORM 
FORCE BY SAT AFTERNOON.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADES ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE 
ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW INTO GULF OF PANAMA WITH 20 KT WINDS 
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT FRI MORNING 
AS THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW 
QUICKLY PASSES SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN...WEAKENING THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND 
HIGH PRES TO ITS N.

THE 1612 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT WELL DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT 
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS ON THU DUE TO ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LANDMASS. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH HERE FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WEAKENS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SCHAUER