000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111543
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 5N77W 6N90W 5N100W 13N115W 6N125W 2N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 108W-112W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH  
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO 19N136W. SOME UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE RIDGE...N OF 
AROUND 29N/30N...OTHERWISE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR 
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA W OF 125W.
HOWEVER BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE LOW 
LEVELS IN THIS AREA. A 125 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE N PORTION OF 
THE RIDGE ALONG 32N BETWEEN 140W AND 128W WHERE WINDS DECREASE 
TO 95 KT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM SW NEW 
MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 8N125W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 108W-112W. A 110-125 JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N115W TO NW MEXICO WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 
150 KT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE EQUATOR AT 105W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY STABLE AIR HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION E OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS 
CENTERED NE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS NEAR 2N91W.

A 1022 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N128W. THE GRADIENT S OF 
THE HIGH IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 10N-20 W OF 110W.
LARGE SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION ARE AND MAY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 FT BY SAT.
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ WITH AXIS FROM 14N116W TO 5N121W. 
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FROM 8N-11N W OF THE TROUGH TO 126W. THE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TODAY.

STRONG NLY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE 
TO GALE FORCE AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON. ELY WINDS 20-25 KT IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT BY FRI AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS