000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111000 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU FEB 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 03N77W TO 05N100W TO 09N118W TO 09N125W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. ...DISCUSSION... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EQUATOR AT 107W EXTENDING NE TO JUST E OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS RIDGE IS SEPARATING TROUGHING FROM AN UPPER LOW JUST SE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AT THE EQUATOR NEAR 89W FROM A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SW TO NEAR 09N126W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH STEMS FROM AN UPPER LOW THAT PASSED SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST YESTERDAY AND HAS TURNED E...CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. STATE OF NEW MEXICO. THIS LOW IS ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN WATERS FROM 03N TO 24N W BETWEEN 110W AND 128W. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF THIS MID TO UPPER TROUGHING IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 15N110W TO 12N115W TO 10N121W TO 07N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY LIES BETWEEN 90 NM AND 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 10N TO 13N. THIS CONVECTION LIES WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND BOTH THE CONVECTION AND THE JET HAVE SHIFTED E OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS MEAN TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH PASSING E INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LEAVING THE ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS BEHIND. AS A RESULT THE VERTICAL LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION AND THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL EPAC WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 29N128W TO NEAR 16N107W AND IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EMBEDDED IN IT RESULTING IN A VERY BROAD ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES FROM 05N TO 21N W OF 111W. A 0519 ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED N TO NE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT WITHIN 210 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT W OF THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH 00 UTC FRI. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE TROUGHING ALOFT DECOUPLES. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER INTERIOR OLD MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 117W AND 123W AS SHOWED BY A 0523 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT THERE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE E. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO SHIFT E TO OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER OLD MEXICO ALONG THE E GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. AS A RESULT EXPECT NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO DEVELOP N OF 23N TONIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. A 0705 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED 20-25 KT SW WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND STALLS OUT IN THE NW PORTION BY TONIGHT. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NW AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL QUICKLY RAISE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE NW WATERS ABOVE 12 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY PEAKING AT AROUND 21 FT IN 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE LARGE LONG PERIOD SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL PROPAGATE N OF THE EQUATOR LATER TODAY AND WILL REACH ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST OF OLD MEXICO BY FRI. THIS SWELL ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE BUILDING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL RESULT IN A CONFUSED SEA STATE MAINLY S OF 20N FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS FROM NOW. GAP WINDS... STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS AND DOWNWIND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WATERS AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE N OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTWARD OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON FRI WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND HAVE ACCORDINGLY ISSUED ANOTHER GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WATERS BEGINNING FRI NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SAT. STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADES ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW INTO GULF OF PANAMA WITH 20 KT WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT FRI MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO QUICKLY PASSES SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 0337 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED 20-25 KT NE-E WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. A SHIP WITH CALL-SIGN 'DGSE' ALSO REPORTED 20 KT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 0600 UTC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THU AND FRI DUE TO ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LANDMASS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THERE BY LATE FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WEAKENS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY