000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110322 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU FEB 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0130 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 03N77W TO 04N91W TO 01N115W TO 06N126W TO 02N140W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ EXCEPT FOR THAT NEAR THE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 14N116W TO 06N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES BETWEEN 90 NM AND 330 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 09N TO 14N. ...DISCUSSION... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EQUATOR AT 110W AND EXTENDING NE TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SEPARATING TROUGHING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AT THE EQUATOR AND 90W FROM A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SW TO NEAR 08N130W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH STEMS FROM AN UPPER LOW THAT PASSED SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST YESTERDAY AND HAS TURNED E...CURRENTLY LYING ALONG THE MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER S OF PHOENIX. THIS LOW IS ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN WATERS FROM 05N TO 22N W OF 115W. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF THIS MID TO UPPER TROUGHING IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 14N116W TO 06N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY LIES BETWEEN 90 NM AND 330 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 09N TO 14N. THIS CONVECTION LIES WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...AND BOTH THE CONVECTION AND THE JET HAVE SHIFTED E OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS MEAN TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH PASSING E INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LEAVING THE ENERGY OVER CENTRAL WATERS BEHIND. IN TURN...THE VERTICAL LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET WILL DIMINISH AS WILL THE CONVECTION AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH HERE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH AT 30N130W TO NEAR 11N109W AND IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EMBEDDED IN IT...RESULTING IN A VERY BROAD ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES FROM 06N TO 21N W OF 116W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1812 UTC CAPTURED N TO NE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE TROUGH. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PASS MISSED THE TROUGH ITSELF WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST AND GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE BELIEVED TO BE PRESENT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT HERE UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE TROUGHING ALOFT DECOUPLES. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER HAS BROUGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 26N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W AS SEEN IN THE 1808 UTC ASCAT PASS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT HERE THU AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGHING SHIFTS E. THE STRONGEST PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOOK FOR NW TO N WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI EVENING. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS TOMORROW MORNING. 20 KT SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL MOVE AHEAD OF FRONT AND QUICKLY RAISE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN NW WATERS ABOVE 12 FT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND REACHING 22 FEET IN 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SE THROUGH YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO HONDURAS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE BEING FUNNELED FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS AND DOWNWIND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WATERS. SHIP ZCDF4 REPORTED WINDS JUST BELOW STORM FORCE FROM 2200 UTC TO 0000 UTC THIS EVENING NEAR 16N95W AND THE 1632 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED GALE FORCE WINDS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN PRES GRAD SLACKENS HERE AS HIGH PRES IN THE WESTERN GULF IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER. STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADES ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW INTO GULF OF PANAMA WITH 20 KT WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT FRI MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW QUICKLY PASSES SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRES TO ITS N. THE 1452 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THU DUE TO ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LANDMASS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH HERE FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WEAKENS. 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