000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102203 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED FEB 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 04N77W TO 02N88W TO 09N116W TO 06N124W TO 03N140W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ EXCEPT FOR THAT NEAR THE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 14N116W TO 06N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 240 NM E OF THIS TROUGH FROM 09N TO 13N. ...DISCUSSION... A WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC VORTEX IS LOCATED NEAR PUERTO PENASCO IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SURFACE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM OF ARIZONA THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE...WITH A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR 30N119W. A DEEP LAYER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS VORTEX S-SW ALOFT TO AN OPEN...POSITIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENDING NEAR 08N134W AND A LOW TO MID LEVEL ELONGATED LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 10N120W. THE VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS MERGED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THIS SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING. E OF THIS MERGED TROUGH...A VERY BROAD AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXISTS AND IS ADVECTING MULTILAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 130W NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO OLD MEXICO...WITH JET CORE SPEEDS OF 150-180 KT CONTINUING TO BE DEPICTED IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS STREAMING NE IS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BEING SHEARED OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 14N116W TO 06N122W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH AT 31N130W TO NEAR 20N112W AND IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN A VERY BROAD ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES FROM 05N TO 23N W OF 112W. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 1812 UTC CAPTURED N TO NE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE TROUGH AND IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ELSEWHERE W OF THE TROUGH FROM 06N TO 21N. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PASS MISSED THE TROUGH ITSELF WHERE WINDS ARE HIGHEST AND GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE BELIEVED TO BE PRESENT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT HERE UNTIL THIS TIME TOMORROW. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE E AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 31N130W WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE E ABOUT 5 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH AND THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO HAS BROUGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS SEEN IN THE 1808 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE TROUGHING TO THE E DISSIPATES. TO THE E...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 06N86W WITH A WEAK LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE AROUND THIS LOW. OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SUBSIDING AIR E OF 120W WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED EASTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE BEING FUNNELED FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS AND DOWNWIND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WATERS. THE 1632 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED GALE FORCE WINDS AND THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADES ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW INTO GULF OF PANAMA WITH 20 KT WINDS HAVING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS. EASTERLY FLOW OFF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA WILL STRENGTHEN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THU DUE TO ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LANDMASS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING/SCHAUER