000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101615 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED FEB 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 05N77W TO 03N84W TO 06N105W TO 11N118W...AND BECOMES MERGED WITH COMPLEX TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 86W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W. ...DISCUSSION... A WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC VORTEX WAS CENTERED JUST S OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA-BAJA BORDER NEAR 32N119W AND WAS DRIFTING SE. AN ASSOCIATED 1010 MB SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED VERY NEAR THIS POSITION NEAR 32N120W. A DEEP LAYER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW S-SW TO 22N126W...WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN EXTENDING SW TO 09N144W. THIS FEATURE HAS MERGED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH A SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N126W TO 09N136W. E OF THIS MERGED TROUGH...A VERY BROAD AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXISTS AND IS ADVECTING MULTILAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 132W NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO OLD MEXICO...WITH JET CORE SPEEDS OF 150-180 KT CONTINUING TO BE DEPICTED IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS STREAMING NE IS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BEING SHEARED OFF INVOF 15.5N122W...WHERE THE GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL TROUGHING AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO BE OCCURRING THERE. NO LLVL SIGNAL CAN BE FOUND IN THIS AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR LLVL CONVERGENCE. A FRONTAL TROUGH IS OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE...WHERE OVERNIGHT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURED NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT SPREADING S AND SE AND MOVING INTO THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE E AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N137W. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE E AND BECOME CENTERED NEAR 30N125W IN 48 HOURS. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 21N108W AND IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND A COMPLEX TROUGH NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 130W...RESULTING IN A VERY BROAD ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES FROM 05N TO 23N W OF 112W. WITHIN THIS AREA OF TRADES IS A COMPLEX SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WAS ESTIMATED FROM NEAR 13N115W TO 08N124W TO 06N129W TO 06.5N135W TO 03N140W. OVERNIGHT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED WINDS UP TO 30 KT ALTHOUGH THIS PASS IS BELIEVED TO HAVE MISSED THE AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS DID REPORT GALE FORCE WINDS AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE GALE WARNING N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY MID AFTERNOON THU AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NE-E AND ENCOUNTERS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. TO THE E...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 07N86W WITH A WEAK LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE AROUND THIS LOW. OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SUBSIDING AIR E OF 120W WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED EASTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE BEING FUNNELED FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS AND DOWNWIND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WATERS. A 0400 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED GALE FORCE WINDS AND THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADES ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW INTO GULF OF PANAMA WITH 20 KT WINDS HAVING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS. EASTERLY FLOW OFF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA WILL STRENGTHEN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THU DUE TO ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LANDMASS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING