000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100958 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED FEB 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 04N77W TO 02N83W TO 05N87W TO 07N120W TO 06N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 123W. ...DISCUSSION... A WELL DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX IS CENTERED OVER THE CHANNEL ISLANDS OFF U.S. CALIFORNIA NEAR 33N119W AND IS DRIFTING SE. A DEEP LAYER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 24N126W TO 14N132W. A VERY BROAD AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXISTS E OF THIS TROUGH AND IS ADVECTING MULTILAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 132W NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO OLD MEXICO...WITH JET CORE SPEEDS OF 150-180 KT DEPICTED IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND A 0546 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED W-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND BOTH OF THESE FEATURES MOVING INTO THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE E AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N136W. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE E AND BECOME CENTERED NEAR 30N125W IN 48 HOURS. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 16N107W AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 112W. WITHIN THIS AREA OF TRADES IS A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 12N115W TO 10N121W TO 06N123W TO 05N126W. A 0540 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED WINDS UP TO 30 KT ALTHOUGH THIS PASS IS BELIEVED TO HAVE MISSED THE AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS DID REPORT GALE FORCE WINDS AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE GALE WARNING N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NE-E AND ENCOUNTERS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. TO THE E...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 07N86W WITH A WEAK LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE AROUND THIS LOW. OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SUBSIDING AIR E OF 120W WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED EASTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE BEING FUNNELED FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS AND DOWNWIND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WATERS. A 0400 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED GALE FORCE WINDS AND THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADES ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW INTO GULF OF PANAMA WITH 20 KT WINDS HAVING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS. EASTERLY FLOW OFF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA WILL STRENGTHEN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THU DUE TO ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LANDMASS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY