000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100326 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED FEB 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 04N77W TO 03N82W TO 05N92W TO 06N111W TO 05N128W TO 07N134W TO 03N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM N AND 60 S OF AXIS W OF 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 07N85W TO 02.5N82W. ...DISCUSSION... WELL DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 35N122W DRIFTING SE HAS DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING S THEN SW TO WEAKENING/FILLING MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 17N137W...THEN CONTINUES SW THEN W TO 11N147W. THIS WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO DIG S INTO THE BACKSIDE...AND BECOME ABSORBED...INTO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS S OF 30N BETWEEN 123W AND 145W. THIS NEW MERGED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE VORTEX MOVING INTO SRN CALIFORNIA TO BECOME DECOUPLED AND EXIT TO THE E...WHILE THE SRN PORTIONS DIGS INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC THROUGH THU...THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES ENE INTO MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY... A VERY BROAD ZONE OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT E OF THIS TROUGH WAS ADVECTING MULTILAYERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS FROM NEAR 130W...NEWD TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF OLD MEXICO...WITH JET CORE SPEEDS OF 150-170 KT DEPICTED IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. N OF 30N...A WELL SUPPORTED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH ADVECTED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINS N OF 25N WED NIGHT AND THU. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW E OF 120W WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION...WHILE A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 83W WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SUBSIDING AIR S OF 16N E OF 105W NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRES CENTER 1025 MB NEAR 30N136W HAS BEEN PRESSING AGAINST BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST PROMPTING FRESH NW WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OF COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYERED LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA APPEARS TO BE BACKING WINDS MORE W TO SW AND DIMINISHING THE FLOW ALONG THE BAJA COAST. THE DIGGING MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NW TO SHIFT INTO N PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT YIELDING A VERY BROAD ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES. ALTHOUGH HINTED AT RECENTLY BE MODEL GUIDANCE...AN 1834 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED A ZONE OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W...AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. THIS AREA OF GALES MAY PULSE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SLIDE E AND NE AS THE ITCZ LIFT N ACROSS PORTIONS E OF 125W...AND MAINTAINS A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. THIS LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH T36-48 HOURS AND COMBINE WITH THE PREVAILING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 15 TO 18 FT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER WITHIN 5 TO 6 DEGREES N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 130W THROUGH 48 HOURS. VARIOUS SCENARIOS HAVE BEEN DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WITH THIS EVOLVING SITUATION...AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN CONSENSUS. GAP WINDS... A STRONG COLD FRONT IN GULF OF MEXICO HAS REACHED THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL FORCE STRONG NLY WINDS ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HRS AND BLAST INTO THE EPAC AS GALES. ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THIS GALE WARNING WAS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY E AND WINDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS WILL VEER BEFORE THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GALES MAY CONTINUE 24-36 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PROMOTE FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LASTING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADES ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO GULF OF PANAMA WITH FRESH N WINDS STARTING WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING