000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092219 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE FEB 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 08N100W TO 05N110W TO 08N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM N OF AXIS W OF 119W. ...DISCUSSION... WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 37N123W DRIFTING SE HAS DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING S THEN SW TO WEAKENING/FILLING MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 18N137W...THEN CONTINUES SW THEN W TO 11N147W. THIS WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO DIG S INTO THE BACKSIDE AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS S OF 30N BETWEEN 123W AND 145W. A VERY BROAD ZONE OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WAS ADVECTING MULTI LAYERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS FROM NEAR 130W...NEWD TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF OLD MEXICO...WITH JET CORE SPEEDS OF 150-170 KT DEPICTED IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. N OF 30N...A WELL SUPPORTED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH ADVECTED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT N OF 26N WED NIGHT AND THU. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW E OF 120W WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION...WHILE A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 83W WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SUBSIDING DRY AIR S OF 16N E OF 105W NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRES CENTER 1025 MB PRESSING AGAINST BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST PROMPTING FRESH NW WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OF COAST. THE DIGGING MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS AIDING IN INDUCING DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...AND COMBINING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NW TO PRODUCE A VERY BROAD ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES. ALTHOUGH HINTED AT RECENTLY BE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND 1834 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED A ZONE OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W. THIS AREA OF GALES MAY PULSE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SLIDE E AND NE AS THE ITCZ LIFT N ACROSS PORTIONS E OF 125W...AND MAINTAINS A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. THIS LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND COMBINE WITH PREVAILING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO PRODUCE SEA 15 TO 18 FT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER WITHIN 5 TO 6 DEGREES N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 130W THROUGH 48 HOURS. VARIOUS SCENARIOS HAVE BEEN DEPICTED BY MODELS WITH THIS EVOLVING SITUATION...AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN CONSENSUS. GAP WINDS... STRONG COLD FRONT IN GULF OF MEXICO WILL FORCE STRONG NLY WINDS ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 12 HRS AND BLAST INTO THE EPAC AS GALES. ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THIS GALE WARNING WAS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY E AND WIND ACROSS ISTHMUS VEERS BEFORE END OF FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GALES MAY CONTINUE 24-36 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT REACHES NW CARIBBEAN AND DOES SIMILAR TRICK ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG BUT LASTING THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADES ALONG NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TURN ENHANCE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO GULF OF PANAMA WITH FRESH N WINDS STARTING THU NIGHT AND THROUGH LATE FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING