000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091616
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 08N100W TO 05N110W TO 08N121W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM N OF AXIS W OF 119W.

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 38N124W DRIFTING SE 
HAS DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGGING S TO 32N123W THEN SW TO AND  
10N140W.  JET CORE OF 175 KT ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE NE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BUT LACK OF UPLIFTING 
MECHANISMS PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. 
N OF 30N...WELL SUPPORTED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA COAST EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH ADVECTED MOISTURE BAND 
TO PRODUCE RAIN EVENT N OF 30N BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. 

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 90W-110W KEEPS BETTER 
CONDITIONS IN REGION WHILE DEEP TROUGH ALONG 83W COMBINES TO 
PRODUCE SUBSIDING DRY AIR MASS S OF 16N E OF 105W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1025 MB PRESSES AIR MASS AGAINST BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COAST PROMPTING FRESH NW WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OF 
COAST.  IT ALSO COMBINES WITH SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 06N TO 
TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT AND MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES 
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  MOST MODELS ACKNOWLEDGE PRESENCE OF 
TROUGH WITH MINOR VARIATIONS IN POSITION BUT WITH CLEARLY NEAR 
GALE NE TRADES.  

GAP WINDS...
STRONG COLD FRONT IN GULF OF MEXICO FORCES STRONG WINDS ACROSS 
CHIVELAS PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 24 HRS.  GALE 
WARNING EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY E 
AND WIND ACROSS ISTHMUS VEERS BEFORE END OF FORECAST PERIOD.
COLD FRONT REACHES NW CARIBBEAN AND DOES SIMILAR TRICK ACROSS 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG BUT LASTING THROUGH 
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADES ALONG NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TURN ENHANCE 
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO GULF OF PANAMA WITH FRESH N WINDS STARTING 
THU NIGHT AND THROUGH LATE FRI. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES