000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090329 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE FEB 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 04N77W TO 04N82W TO 08N90W TO 04N104W TO 08N120W TO 08N134W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM N AND 30 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN EXTENDING FROM SRN HEMISPHERE N ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO S HALF OF AREA PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED S AND BACK INTO SRN HEMI...LEAVING BROAD WLYS ALOFT E OF 100W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH S OF 21N BETWEEN ROUGHLY 130W AND 150W CONTINUED TO SHIFT SLOWLY E TODAY...AND IS ALLOWING A MID LATITUDE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N140W TO DIG SE INTO BACKSIDE OF THIS BROAD LOWER LAT TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY MERGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DIG SE TO A POSITION FROM SRN CALIFORNIA TO 08N130W BY WED MORNING...WITH STRONG JET ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE INTO BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE AND THEN EXIT TO THE NE ACROSS THE N TWO-THIRDS OF MEXICO. RIDGING JUST TO THE E OF THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 15N W OF 115W. THE ASSOCIATED REALIGNMENT OF THE EPAC SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT N OF THE ITCZ LEADING TO 25-30 KT TRADES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL AND TRANSIENT AREAS OF GALES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE ITCZ. ADDITIONALLY...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE SHEARED AND TRANSPORTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO AND COULD LEAD TO FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES. AHEAD OF THIS EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH...A FLAT S/W UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 115W BETWEEN 10N AND 26N HAS PRODUCED A BROAD ZONE OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CORE WIND SPEEDS AS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS WERE UP TO 120 KT. UNDERNEATH THIS WLY FLOW ALOFT E OF 110W WAS A MID LEVEL TUTT REFLECTION SNAKING FROM THE SE CARIBBEAN WWD AND INTO THE EPAC ALONG 90W...WHERE GENERALLY SUBSIDENCE PREVAILED N OF 10N E OF 105W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... A TRIO OF SURFACE HIGHS ACROSS AND BEYOND THE NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE ALREADY INDUCED A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LARGE AREA OF FRESH NELY TRADES S OF 22-24N AND W OF 118-120W. EARLY AFTERNOON ASCAT PASSES VERIFIED THESE WINDS...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SOLID 25 KT NE WINDS DEPICTED BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 18N W OF 120W. THESE FRESH WINDS ARE QUICKLY BUILDING NELY WIND SWELL ACROSS THIS REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND EXPAND E AND NE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ARE GENERALLY DOMINATED BY PULSE AFTER PULSE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. MIXING OF THIS SWELL WITH THE NELY WIND SWELL WITHIN THE TRADES IS YIELDING SEAS UP TO 16 FT IN THIS REGION OF FRESH TRADES. ADDITIONALLY...LONG PERIOD S TO SW SWELL IS MOVING INTO W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGHS HAVE ALSO CREATED A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA EXTENDING S ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...PRODUCING NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT...AND SEAS 10 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. WINDS ALONG N PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... E WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME AT 20 KT OR GREATER BY 36 HOURS. THE PRES GRADIENT IN SW CARIBBEAN WILL STRENGTHEN IN 48 HOURS ENHANCING NORTHERLY FLOW INTO GULF OF PANAMA WITH FRESH N BREEZE EXPECTED EARLY WED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS CROSSING THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS AND THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC... INCREASING TO 25-30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF 12-18 HOUR PERIOD WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING