000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON FEB 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 05N82W TO 07N88W TO 03N104W TO 09N131W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS W OF 118W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NW PORTION OF BASIN FROM 32N138W TO 20N140W. HEALTHY 135 KT JET CORE 135 KT SE OF AXIS ADVECTS CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE N OF 23N W OF 127W TO THE NE WHICH COULD REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE IN PERIOD. COLD FRONT APPROACHING CALIFORNIA COAST N OF 30N COULD SUPPLY MECHANICAL UPLIFT AND BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL N OF AREA ALONG 108W FLATTENS CREST OF TROPICAL RIDGE E OF 120W MAKING WIND FLOW QUASI ZONAL OVER E PAC WITH VERY DRY LAYERS S OF 18N E OF 112W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL UP TO 15 FT PROPAGATING THROUGH NW PORTION OF AREA EXPECTED TO LAST WITH LITTLE DECAY THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS S OF 18N E OF 112W EVEN SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ. SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ITCZ W OF 125W TIGHTENS PRES GRADIENT WITH 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AT 30N128W BRINGING STRONG NE TRADES WHICH EXPAND AS RIDGE MERGES WITH STRONGER RIDGE 1025 MB DRIFTING SE. GAP WINDS... NE-E WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN NEXT 12 HRS. PRES GRADIENT IN SW CARIBBEAN STRENGTHEN IN 48 HOURS ENHANCING NORTHERLY FLOW INTO GULF OF PANAMA WITH FRESH N BREEZE EXPECTED EARLY WED. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE AND NORTHERLY WINDS CROSS THROUGH CHIVELAS PASS INTO GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC BECOMING STRONG LATE TUE NIGHT... POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLY BARNES