000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080956 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON FEB 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 06N77W TO 05N89W TO 03N100W TO 06N121W TO 08N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 127W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM NEAR 32N135W TO 19N140W... DISJOINTED FROM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH S OF THERE FROM 17N135W TO 06N145W. CONSIDERABLE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT IS NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN AND DISSIPATE TODAY AS 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N135W REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH TO THE SE NEAR 18N110W. NW WINDS AROUND THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED UP AGAINST THE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND SHIP WITH CALL-SIGN 'PDGS' WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE SE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA HAS BEEN REPORTING NW WINDS OF 20 KT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT MON NIGHT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WED AS A REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE ARRIVES. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF UP TO 13 FT IS ALSO PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS E OF THE UPPER TROUGHS. THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH 100-125 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDS FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 07N140W TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED UP FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE AND ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. W OF THE TROUGH VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE. E OF 110W VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ALSO IN PLACE DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM 14N97W TO 06N96W TO 02N103W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE MOST PROMINENT TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N124W TO 11N130W TO 09N135W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITCZ. A 0624 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AND NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N TO 18N. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE TROUGH TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT SHIFTS TO THE NE-E DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE NE-E TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KT NEAR THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GAP WINDS... NE-E WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH MON NIGHT DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND SEMI-PERMANENT CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM DRAINAGE FLOW. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX BEGINNING LATE MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...DIMINISHING WINDS TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY EARLY TUE. THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL STRENGTHEN IN 48 HOURS ENHANCING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA AND DOWNWIND THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THERE BY LATE TUE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ACCELERATED THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS WITH WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC INCREASING TO 20-25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE ON WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY