000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080339 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON FEB 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0330 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 05N77W TO 06N85W TO 03N100W TO 10N133W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER EXTREME SRN NEVADA ACROSS THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA TO NEAR 24N118W. THIS TROUGH WAS DE-AMPLIFYING WITH TIME IN THE FACE OF THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW. NONETHELESS THE TROUGH HAD PROVIDED LIMITED SUPPORT FOR COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A 1023 MB HIGH WELL WEST OF THE FRONT NEAR 31N136W IS BUILDING EWD INTO THE AREA AND BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA EXTENDING S TO NRN BAJA. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF UP TO 13 FEET IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW WATERS. A TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES NOTED ABOVE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...INCLUDING A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 135W HAS RESULTED IN A BROADENED AREA OF NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 08N TO 17N W OF 125W AS CONFIRMED BY A 1736 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THIS ZONE OF FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SEAS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONFUSED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD NE LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 25N ALONG 150W WAS APPROACHING THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DIG SE TO ALONG 10N130W BY WED. THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH EWD ALLOWING THE AREA OF TRADES TO EXPAND EASTWARD TO ALONG 115W WITH LOCALIZED WINDS OF 25-30 KT BY WED. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTERACTION WILL BE SHEARED AND TRANSPORTED NE AND INTO THE W COAST OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS WED NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. TO THE E...A DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A REMNANT SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN NICARAGUA TO NEAR 11N91W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS IN PLACE SE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE WATERS WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO TO 00N110W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE S OF 16N E OF 113W WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. GAP WINDS... WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AROUND 20 KT THROUGH MON...AS THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NICARAGUA ALLOWS FOR A STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM DRAINAGE FLOW. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...DIMINISHING WINDS TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY MON EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NOW INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE ON WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB