000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071611 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN FEB 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 05N77W TO 07N85W TO 03N93W TO 10N133W TO 05N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 129W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA N OF 18N THIS MORNING. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 36N115W ACROSS THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA TO NEAR 24N118W. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...ALTHOUGH IT IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS E TOWARD THE REMNANT RIDGE OF A COLLAPSED SURFACE HIGH OFF THE NEAR 23N117W. A 1022 MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 30N137W HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA EXTENDING S TO NRN BAJA. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF UP TO 16 FEET IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE WHILE THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND MAINTAINS THE GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTS. A TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...INCLUDING A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 134W HAS RESULTED IN A BROADENED AREA OF NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 08N TO 17N W OF 125W AS CONFIRMED BY OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THIS ZONE OF FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SEAS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONFUSED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD NE LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA TO THE NW WAS NEARING 150W AND WAS N OF 23N. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE E AND SE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DIG TO ALONG 10N130W ON WED. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY EXCITE ITCZ CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH...AND PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH SEWD...FURTHER INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT N OF THE ITCZ. LOOKS FOR THE TRADES BETWEEN 115W AND 135W TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT BY WED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY ORGANIZED WAVES AND PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE ITCZ. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTERACTION WILL BE SHEARED AND TRANSPORTED NE AND INTO THE W COAST OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS WED NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. TO THE E...A DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A REMNANT SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN NICARAGUA TO NEAR 10N92W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS IN PLACE SE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE WATERS WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO TO 00N110W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE S OF 16N E OF 113W WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. GAP WINDS... WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AROUND 20 KT THROUGH MON...AS THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NICARAGUA ALLOWS FOR A STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM DRAINAGE FLOW. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD... DIMINISHING WINDS TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY MON EVENING. A 0322 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN GALE FORCE...AND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS EASTWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING