000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070934
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 05N77W 
TO 02N100W TO 06N115W TO 06N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W 
AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA N OF 18N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TO NEAR 23N122W. A SURFACE 
COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ALTHOUGH IT 
IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS E TOWARD 1018 MB SURFACE 
HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 22N117W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF UP TO 
16 FEET IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW WATERS BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT. 

A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N140W WITH LIGHT WINDS 
OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ INCLUDING A 
SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 14N131W TO 05N135W IS 
RESULTING IN NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 08N TO 17N W OF 120W 
AS CONFIRMED BY A 0644 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE HIGH 
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON WITH THE AREA OF FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADES PERSISTING. A CONFUSED SEA STATE WILL ALSO 
EXIST IN THIS SAME AREA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL AND SHORT PERIOD NE LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES. 

TO THE E...A DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS 
THE NW CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A REMNANT SURFACE 
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN NICARAGUA TO NEAR 
10N92W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS IN PLACE SE OF THE TROUGH 
OVER THE FAR SE WATERS WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEAR 
ACAPULCO MEXICO TO 00N110W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE S OF 16N E OF 113W WHICH IS 
HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE ITCZ.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 
TO 25 KT THROUGH MON...AS THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THE 
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NICARAGUA ALLOWS 
FOR A STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND CLIMATOLOGICAL 
LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE 
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM DRAINAGE FLOW. THE 
PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD... 
DIMINISHING WINDS TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY MON EVENING.

A 0322 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED NORTHERLY WINDS TO 
25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN LESS THAN GALE FORCE...AND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 
20 KT BY THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS EASTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY