000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070234 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN FEB 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 04N77W TO 01N95W TO 05N110W TO 08N130W TO 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. A TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 04N88W TO 00N90W HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS FROM 02N TO 04N. ...DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA N OF 20N. TO THE E...A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER FAR SE WATERS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AXIS AND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 05N106W. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A POOL OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOSITURE S OF 06N AND E OF 100W...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. TWO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ IN THIS REGION. THE WESTERN TROUGH LIES FROM 04N88W TO 00N90W AND HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS FROM 02N TO 04N. THE EASTERN TROUGH LIES FROM 05N80W TO 01N82W AND HAS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR IS BEGINNING TO IMPINGE UPON THE MOISTURE POOL HERE FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME LESS DIFFLUENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES N OF THE RIDGE...SUPPRESSING IT TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOWING THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE NE AS IT DISSIPATES. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS UNLIKELY AS A RESULT. FARTHER N...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR AND HIGH PRES HAS MOVED IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WERE EVIDENT ON THE 1614 UTC ASCAT PASS. A COLD FRONT OVER NE WATERS FROM 30N117W TO 21N130W IS USHERING IN HIGH PRES TO ITS W OVER FAR NW WATERS. THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION IN W WATERS S OF THIS HIGH ACCORDING TO THE 1936 AND 1756 UTC ASCAT PASSES. THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 20 TO 25 KT SUN. ON MON...LOOK FOR A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO W WATERS AND DRAW THE ITCZ W OF 120W NORTHWARD TO 10N AS THE TROUGHING BEGINS TO REFLECT AT THE SURFACE. THE MODELS COME SHORT OF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW PRES SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DO DECREASE THE PRES ALONG THE ITCZ WHICH INCREASES THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND 1022 MB HIGH PRES EXPECTED OVER FAR NW WATERS MON EVENING. TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT MON AS A RESULT OF THIS BUILDING PRES GRADIENT. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL STRETCH S OF 10N AT THAT TIME...TAPPING INTO SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGED ALONG THE ITCZ. LOOK FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ BY MON AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE JET. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER NE WATERS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 16 FT ARE FOUND IN THE NW SWELL OVER N WATERS BEHIND THIS FRONT. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE SUBSIDE AS IT TRACKS SE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GAP WINDS... WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER HONDURAS ALLOWS FOR A STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. THIS GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MON...BRINGING WINDS DOWN TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY MON EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED N WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE AND SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUN EVENING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS EASTWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER