000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062212 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION ...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT FEB 06 2010 CORRECTED FOR WORDING... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2045 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N77W TO 02N100W TO 06N114W TO 06N132W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM E OF A TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 07N82W TO 02N83W AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ANOTHER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 08N89W TO 02N90W. ...DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA N OF 20N. TO THE E...A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER FAR SE WATERS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AXIS AND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 03N107W. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A POOL OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOSITURE S OF 06N AND E OF 100W...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. TWO WEAK BUT CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ IN THIS REGION. THE WESTERN TROUGH...FROM 08N89W TO 02N90W...HAS ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED NEAR IT WHILE THE EASTERN TROUGH...FROM 07N82W TO 00N83W...HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM E OF ITS AXIS FROM 02N TO 07N. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME LESS DIFFLUENT HERE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW DISSIPATES AND IS PUSHED NORTHEASTWARD. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH HERE AS A RESULT. FARTHER N...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH HONDURAS AND HIGH PRES HAS MOVED IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WERE EVIDENT ON THE 1240 UTC WINDSAT PASS. A COLD FRONT OVER NE WATERS FROM 30N119W TO 21N130W HAS SHOVED THE 1019 MB HIGH PRES TO ITS E TO 24N118W. HOWEVER...STRONGER 1022 MB HIGH PRES IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION IN W WATERS ACCORDING TO THE 0522 AND 0704 UTC ASCAT PASSES. THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 20 TO 25 KT SUN THROUGH MON. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER NE WATERS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. SHIP ZCDF4 REPORTED 18 KT SW WINDS E OF THE FRONT NEAR 29N117W...SO 20 KT WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO CONTINUE IN THIS S-SW FLOW OVER FORECAST WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 17 FT ARE FOUND IN THE NW SWELL OVER N WATERS BEHIND THIS FRONT. ON MON...LOOK FOR A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SW UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL STRETCH S OF 10N AT THAT TIME...TAPPING INTO SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGED ALONG THE ITCZ. LOOK FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ BY MON AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE JET. GAP WINDS... WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER HONDURAS SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT ENOUGH MON MORNING TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE AND SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUN EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER