000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061623 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT FEB 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 04N77W TO 07N83W TO 05N92W TO 03N100W TO 07N112W TO 06N132W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 83W. TROUGH ALONG 95W FROM 02N TO 09N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM E AND 360 NM W OF TROUGH AXIS FROM 04N TO 09N. ...DISCUSSION... THE DOMINANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL WEATHER FEATURE IS BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO SW ACROSS SRN MEXICO CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 10N109W...AND THEN CONNECTED TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 01N108W. TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS WELL S OF THE EQUATOR AND IS PART OF A CROSS EQUATORIAL BLOCKING PATTERN CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE TROPICS BETWEEN 70W AND 140W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT E OF THIS EQUATORIAL UPPER LOW WAS PRODUCING BOTH DIFFLUENCE AND SPEED DIVERGENCE LEADING TO CLUSTERS OF ACTIVE AND DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE ITCZ E OF 102W. N OF 13N...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW NOW PREVAILS...WHICH IS IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS THAT HAVE TRAVERSED THE AREA OF THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. A PAIR OF TROUGHS CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC N OF 20N. ONE MOVING INTO THE W COAST OF THE U.S. EXTENDING S-SW TO NEAR 26N129W AND ANOTHER WELL UPSTREAM APPROACHING 160W. THIS UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK...WITH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR 02N135W N AND NE TO NEAR 13N127W WAS AIDING IN VENTILATING ITCZ CONVECTION ALONG A PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW ALONG 132W...WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FIRE ALONG THE ITCZ E TO 121W. A PAIR OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WERE DRAGGING E AND NE ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH THE EASTERN FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N121W TO 18N140W...AND THE SECOND REINFORCING FRONT TO THE W EXTENDING FROM 30N127W TO 26N134W. THE FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY PUSH E AND OVER A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED ON A 1018 MB HIGH PRES REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE NEAR 25N118W TODAY. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S IS RESULTING IN FRESH TRADES FROM 07N TO 16N W OF 127W. THE TRADES WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO THE N AND E AS 1023 MB HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW BECOMING CENTERED NEAR 29N139W BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN PREVALENT OVER THAT SAME AREA THROUGH SUN AND BEYOND AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTS OVER THE N WATERS ARE WEAKENING YET 20 KT SW WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE N OF 28N E OF THE FIRST FRONT WITH 20-25 KT W-NW POSSIBLE W OF THE SECOND FRONT... ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES TO CONFIRM THIS ALTHOUGH SHIP WITH CALL-SIGN WDD6042 NEAR 30N133W DID REPORT 20 KT NW WINDS AT 0600 UTC. LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 22 FT IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NW WATERS AND A SHIP WITH CALL-SIGN WRFJ NEAR 32N132W REPORTED 17 FT SEAS AT 0600 UTC. THE LARGE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AND SUBSIDE TO 16 FT BY THIS EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE E-SE...THEN TO 12 FT BY SUN EVENING. GAP WINDS... NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS. WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 KT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME TO SEE 20 KT WINDS DUE TO ENHANCEMENT FROM DRAINAGE FLOW. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED SE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE...AND SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY LATE SUN EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING