000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060948 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT FEB 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N77W TO 05N94W TO 08N110W TO 07N131W TO 04N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 92W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... THE DOMINATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WEATHER FEATURE IS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM BELIZE/GUATEMALA S TO THE EQUATOR CENTERED OVER THE E PACIFIC WATERS ALONG 100W AND CONTINUING TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 04N100W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BROAD TROUGH AND THE EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS LIFTING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGED NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 02N96W TO 09N93W. AS A RESULT SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 270 NM W OF TROUGH AXIS FROM 03N TO 07N. W OF 110W... A PAIR OF DISSIPATING COLD FRONTS ARE OVER THE FAR NW PART WITH THE EASTERN FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N119W TO 25N127W TO 20N136W WITH THE OTHER FRONT TO THE W EXTENDING FROM 32N124W TO 26N136W. THE FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY PUSH E WITH 1020 MB HIGH PRES REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE NEAR 24N119W TODAY. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S IS RESULTING IN FRESH TRADES FROM 07N TO 15N W OF 133W. THE TRADES WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO THE N AND E AS 1023 MB HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW BECOMING CENTERED NEAR 29N139W BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. THESE TRADES WILL REMAIN PREVALENT OVER THAT SAME AREA THROUGH SUN AND BEYOND AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTS OVER THE N WATERS ARE DISSIPATING YET 20 KT SW WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE N OF 27N E OF THE FIRST FRONT WITH 20-25 KT W-NW POSSIBLE W OF THE SECOND FRONT... ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES TO CONFIRM THIS ALTHOUGH SHIP WITH CALL-SIGN WDD6042 NEAR 30N133W DID REPORT 20 KT NW WINDS AT 0600 UTC. LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 22 FT IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NW WATERS AND A SHIP WITH CALL-SIGN WRFJ NEAR 32N132W REPORTED 17 FT SEAS AT 0600 UTC. THE LARGE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AND SUBSIDE TO 16 FT BY THIS EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE E-SE...THEN TO 12 FT BY SUN EVENING. GAP WINDS... NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS. WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 KT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME TO SEE 20 KT WINDS DUE TO ENHANCEMENT FROM DRAINAGE FLOW. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED SE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE...AND SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY LATE SUN EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY