000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060258 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT FEB 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 03N77W TO 05N102W TO 08N115W TO 07N122W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 99W WHILE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 128W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FROM EASTERN MEXICO/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO S TO THE EQUATOR CENTERED OVER PACIFIC WATERS ALONG 100W AND CONTINUING TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 03S100W DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN E OF 110W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BROAD TROUGH AND THE EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR IS LIFTING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGED NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG FROM 08N93W TO 02N95W. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 99W. FARTHER N...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGHING IS PUSHING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANEL AND HIGH PRES IS SLOWLY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTH WINDS WILL ACCELERATE TO 20 KT THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. W OF 110W... A COLD FRONT OVER N WATERS FROM 30N122W TO 18N140W HAS SHOVED THE 1018 MB HIGH PRES TO ITS E TO 25N118W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO ITS S ALONG 08N HAS BROUGHT THE RETURN OF FRESH TRADES TO CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 125W. THE TRADES WILL SHIFT W THROUGH TOMORROW AS NEW HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NW WATERS...WITH TRADES REMAINING IN PLACE THERE THROUGH SUN. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER N WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...DISSIPATING OVER NE WATERS SAT. THE 1433 UTC WINDSAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE TO 30 KT JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N123W. THERE HAVE BEEN NO SCATTEROMETER PASSES SINCE THEN...BUT SHIP PDGS REPORTED 19 KT NEAR 30N119W....SO 20 KT WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO CONTINUE IN THIS S-SW FLOW OVER FORECAST WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM LIES MAINLY N OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A COLD FRONT ENDING NEAR 28N137W. 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND OVER NW WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF NW SWELL INTO THE REGION...WITH SEAS CURRENTLY TO 22 FT IN FAR NW WATERS. NUMEROUS SHIP OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 20N AND 37N AND A JASON1 PASS FROM 2150 UTC SUGGEST THE 1800 UTC WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO FAST BRINGING THIS LARGE SWELL EASTWARD BY 60-90 NM AND IS ALSO TOO FAST BRINGING THE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN NE WATERS TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA BY 90-120 NM. THE LARGE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO 16 FT BY SAT EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. GAP WINDS... AN 1116 UTC WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED 20 KT N TO N-NW WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA. THERE HAVE BEEN NO NEW OBSERVATIONS SINCE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT SAT MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS. WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE TO 20 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE MOST LIKELY TIME TO SEE 20 KT WINDS IN THE ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE ABOVE 20 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE...AND SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY SUN EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER