000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052204 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI FEB 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 01N79W TO 05N91W TO 05N110W TO 06N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 98W. THIS CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY FOUND ON THE E SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 95W FROM 02N TO 08N. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD TROUGHING FROM MAINLAND MEXICO S TO THE EQUATOR CENTERED ALONG 100W AND CONTINUING ALOFT TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 03S100W DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN E OF 120W. THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED OUT OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BROAD TROUGH AND THE EAST FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH IS LIFTING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGED NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 95W FROM 02N TO 08N. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND PRIMARILY W OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 98W. FARTHER N...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGHING IS PUSHING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT THE MOMENT...BUT HIGH PRES IS SLOW TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO 20 KT THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE REMNANT PORTION OF THIS FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC LIES FROM 15N96W TO 06N116W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND BUILDING 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 27N117W HAS BROUGHT THE RETURN OF FRESH TRADES TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH WHERE IT MOST CLOSELY APPROACHES THE ITCZ. THE TRADES WILL SHIFT W THROUGH TOMORROW AS NEW HIGH PRES BEHIND A PROGRESSIVE...WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM 30N123W TO 18N140W MOVES INTO NW WATERS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING...DISSIPATING OVER NE WATERS SAT. THE 1433 UTC WINDSAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE TO 30 KT JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N123W. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BELIEVED TO BE 20 KT IN THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 25N WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY LIES JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A COLD FRONT TO 30N135W. 20 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND OVER NW WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF NW SWELL INTO THE REGION...WITH SEAS CURRENTLY TO 20 FT IN FAR NW WATERS BUT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 16 FT BY SAT EVENING AS THE SWELL PROGRESSES EASTWARD. GAP WINDS... AN 1116 UTC WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED 20 KT N TO N-NW WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA. THERE HAS BEEN NO NEW DATA SINCE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT SAT MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS. 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PULSE NEAR 20 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT ON SAT AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT A WARNING WOULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER