000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051619 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI FEB 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 02N78W TO 01.5N82W TO 06N91W TO 05N111W TO 06N122W TO 05N131W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 99W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYER MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH ERN TEXAS CONTINUING S-SW THROUGH ERN MEXICO THEN EXTENDED SW TO 14N108W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS OCCURRING WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DUE TO MID TO UPPER CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 14N AND 22N E OF112W. A TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE TO THE W WAS S OF 24N ALONG ABOUT 125W. THIS RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO AID IN NWLY UPPER FLOW DIVING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH...AND A LINGERING SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH INDUCED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE W AND A RIDGE ACROSS S AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH WAS S OF 15N ALONG 101/1O2W...AND IS BECOMING ANCHORED TO AN EQUATORIAL MID TO UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED 03S100W. THIS UPPER PATTERN HAS ALLOWED FOR A SERIES OF WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO MOVE ACROSS THE RIDGE TO THE W AND DROP INTO TROUGHING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SW U.S. THE MOST RECENT REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS GRADUALLY BEEN PUSHED SE...AND WAS LINGERING FROM THE S COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 16N100W TO NEAR 07N118W. THIS FEATURES DELINEATES A BOUNDARY BETWEEN DRY AND STABLE MODIFIED AIR...AND A MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER RIDDEN BY SWLY FLOW ALOFT JUST AHEAD OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER MEXICO. A MODEST AREA OF NEAR 20 KT WINDS WERE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THIS WEAK BOUNDARY W OF 106W. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WAS FOUND WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THIS BOUNDARY. A LARGE UPPER CYCLONE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC WITH S/W ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE AND APPROACHING 130W N OF 30N SUPPORTED AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TRAILING SW ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE E INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 25N117W AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST NW OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT EXPECTED TO SCRAPE ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS LATER TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AS IT PUSHES TO THE E. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO 20 TO 22 FT IN NW SWELL BETWEEN 30N/32N FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL PROPAGATE TO THE SE THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TRADES WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE N OF THE ITCZ ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR NE-E TRADES TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT FROM 07N TO 18N W OF 131W BEGINNING LATE FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GAP WINDS... AN 1116 UTC WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED 20 KT N TO N-NW WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS. 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PULSE NEAR 20 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT ON SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE N OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT A WARNING WOULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUN EVENING. ELSEWHERE...THE FORECAST WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY NW SWELL AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING