000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 05N77W TO 
05N100W TO 06N110W TO 08N127W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 98W. 


...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL 
TEXAS THROUGH MEXICO NEAR 26N100W TO 12N103W. THE REMNANTS OF A 
SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE 
RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. 
ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA TO 32N124W TO 27N131W WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD 
FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AS 
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE E INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ANCHORED 
BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 25N118W AND WILL DISSIPATED DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST NW OF 
THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT EXPECTED TO SCRAPE 
ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS LATER TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE 
PERIPHERY OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AS IT PUSHES 
TO THE E. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO 20 TO 22 FT 
IN NW SWELL BETWEEN 30N/32N FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL PROPAGATE TO 
THE SE THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 05N130W WITH AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 26N125W. 
VERY DRY AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE 
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA W OF 100W WHICH IS SUPPRESSING 
ANY CONVECTION THAT ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ITCZ. 

TRADES REMAIN LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE N OF THE 
ITCZ ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR NE-E TRADES TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT FROM 
07N TO 18N W OF 131W BEGINNING LATE FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING 
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

GAP WINDS...
A 0220 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED 20 KT NORTHERLY 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW 
PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS.

20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 
20 KT BY THIS EVENING.

NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO 20 
TO 25 KT ON SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE N OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. IT APPEARS UNLIKELY 
THAT A WARNING WOULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED WITH WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUN EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...THE FORECAST WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY NW SWELL AND 
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY