000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041615 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU FEB 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1445 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 04N77W TO 07N84W TO 07N98W TO 09N106W TO 04N125W TO 04N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 110W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 10N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. ...DISCUSSION... EL NINO RELATED UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE E PAC THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE SRN HEMISPHERE BETWEEN 125W AND 135W EXTENDING N-NW TO 24N138W. THE WLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SPLITS AT ABOUT 130W WITH A SRN BRANCH DIVING SE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF MAJOR LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO A DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE SW U.S. NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN EXTENDS S OVER NW MEXICO AND THEN SW ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC TO NEAR 11N113W. THIS TROUGH IS HELPING TO NUDGE EWD A RATHER FLAT SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS...CURRENTLY FROM JUST OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 15N99W TO 05N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS EVOLVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SOMEWHAT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE OCCURRING ACROSS THE N HALF OF THIS SRN STREAM FEATURE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG CVNTN S OF THE MEXICAN COAST N OF 10N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. STRONG LLVL FLOW FLOWING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE FAR EPAC IS CONVERGING WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES E OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH LEADING TO THE ACTIVE CNVTN. THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N AND E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MOVE INLAND AND THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE W OF THESE UPPER FEATURES...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION FROM 10N TO 25N DUE TO THE PRESENCE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALSO DOMINATED THE AREA E OF 90W INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED SE THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA THE PAST FEW DAYS CAN BE FOUND FROM 19N104W TO 07N121W. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE AND MERGE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ABOVE BY 24 HOURS. BEHIND THIS SECOND TROUGH...A 1016 MB WEAK HIGH PRES NEAR 24N123W WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE N WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. 20 KT NE TRADE WINDS LIE S OF THIS HIGH FROM 06N TO 12N W OF 124W. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN BY SAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS EWD OVER THE N WATERS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N133.5W TO 23N140W...WITH SW GALES OCCURRING N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT W TO NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WERE OCCURRING WITH SEAS 12 TO 18 FT IN NW SWELL. A NEXT REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR N WATERS ON FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A NEW SURGE OF NW SWELL INTO THE REGION...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH 21 FT IN FAR NW WATERS FRI AFTERNOON. GAP WINDS... ASCAT DATA FROM 0242 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED THAT STRONG NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE GAP WINDS HERE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY FRI AFTERNOON. SIMILARLY...THE 20 KT WINDS CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE FRI NIGHT WHEN THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES IN COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WILL LIKELY BEGIN SATURDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WARNING. ELSEWHERE...FORECAST WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY NW SWELL AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING