000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N77W 
TO  03N92W TO 08N110W TO 05N126W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ.     

...DISCUSSION...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR NW WATERS IN THE SOUTHERLY 
FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE GALE WARNING IS FORECAST 
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA 
AND NE WATERS BY FRI EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT NORTH OF 
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THIS FRONT FRI AND WILL BRING A 
NEW SURGE OF NW SWELL INTO THE REGION...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO 
REACH 21 FT IN FAR NW WATERS FRI AFTERNOON.

A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS PRESENT OVER NW MEXICO WITH A WEAK SURFACE 
LOW REFLECTION FOUND IN THE REGION JUST E OF THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA. WHILE NO STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS LOW...MODERATE DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND OVER NW 
MAINLAND MEXICO. THE WEAK LOW SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE 
OVER THE SIERRA MADRES WITH REFORMATION OF A NEW SURFACE LOW IN 
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW. FARTHER S...A SURFACE TROUGH 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING ALOFT CAN BE FOUND FROM 18N104W TO 
08N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 300 
NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND WINDS OF 20 KT CAN BE FOUND 
WITHIN 180 NM E OF ITS AXIS. WHILE THE GFS IS BULLISH IN 
INDICATING A SHORT-LIVED LOW WILL SPIN UP ALONG THE 
TROUGH...NONE OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR 
PATTERN...SO THIS SOLUTION WAS DOWNPLAYED.  

ELSEWHERE...FORECAST WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY NW SWELL AND 
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...WITH THE NE TRADE WINDS IN W WATERS 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TOMORROW. 

GAP WIND...
THE 1536 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 KT IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE SAME PASS SHOWS STRONG NE TO E FLOW 
CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS HERE ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY FRI AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...20 KT WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA. THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WILL LIKELY BEGIN 
SATURDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL BECOME STRONG 
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WARNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SCHAUER