000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031611
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N77W 
TO  03N92W TO 08N110W TO 05N126W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTION.     

...DISCUSSION...

A RATHER NUMEROUS NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT MARINE FEATURES GOING ON 
TODAY.  THE ONE GALE EVENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT 
THAT IS APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF OUR AREA OF 
RESPONSIBILITY.  THE 00Z ECMWF BRIEFLY BRINGS SW GALE CONDITIONS 
TO THE AREA...WHILE THE 06Z GFS STAYS JUST BELOW GALE WINDS.  
WILL CONTINUE WITH GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME...WITH ONSET THIS 
EVENING AND WEAKENING BELOW GALE THURSDAY EVENING.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG DEEP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE 
FRONT NORTH OF 25N.

A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS PRESENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A WEAK 
SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG WITH A TRAILING TROUGH IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA.  WHILE NO STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE OCCURRING...SOME 
MODERATE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING KICKED OFF ALONG THE MAINLAND 
MEXICAN COAST.  THE WEAK LOW AND TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND 
DISSIPATE OVER THE SIERRA MADRES WITH REFORMATION OF A NEW 
SURFACE LOW IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW.

ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN NEAR MANZANILLO IN MEXICO AND 
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING 
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  WHILE THE GFS IS BULLISH IN INDICATING 
A SHORT-LIVED LOW WILL SPIN UP ALONG THE TROUGH...NONE OF THE 
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN AND THUS THIS 
SOLUTION IS DOWNPLAYED.  

...GAP WIND EVENTS
THREE GAPS WIND EVENTS ARE ONGOING WITH TEHUANTEPEC...
PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA ALL SHOWING WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.  WHILE THE 
FORCING FOR THE TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TODAY...THE PAPAGAYO 
AND PANAMA WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT 
REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE.  THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WILL 
LIKELY BEGIN SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR 
THAT IT WILL BECOME VERY STRONG.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA