000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030317 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED FEB 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 04N77W TO 05N90W TO 08N113W TO 06N125W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE W COAST OF U.S. EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO A LOW NEAR 28N115W AND ALONG A NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS TO 17N107W. A 130-150 KT SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET BRANCH LIES ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH CORE WINDS OF 80-100 KT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TURNING NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION OVER MEXICO N OF 17N. LIGHTENING IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N105W TO 15N107W APPEARS TO BE FUELING THE CONVECTION. SHIP ZCDF4 PASSED N THROUGH THE REGION WHERE THE TROUGH AND COAST MEET AND SHOWED CONSISTENT 20 KT WINDS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION W OF 120W AND S OF 25N. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED S OF 12N AND E OF 100W. THE COLD FRONT THAT DISSIPATED N OF THE AREA TODAY HAS BROUGHT NW SWELL UP TO 11 FT IN WATERS N OF 25N W OF 125W TONIGHT. THE WW3 MODELS APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SEAS HERE AT THE MOMENT. THIS SWELL WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT SPREADS SE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 1016 MB WEAK HIGH PRES NEAR 26N138W WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE N WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NE TRADE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE CURRENTLY LIE S OF THIS HIGH W OF 127W FROM 07N TO 16N ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT PASS AROUND 1920 UTC. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT THU. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WED NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THE GEFS SHOWS AT LEAST A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN FORECAST WATERS. TACKED A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ONTO THE CURRENT WARNING FOUND IN OPC WATERS NORTH OF 30N. SEE THE HSFEP1 FOR DETAILS ON THE WARNING N OF 30N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...INDUCED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH 18N112W TO 11N114W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1736 UTC REVEALS THE TROUGH POSITION. PRESENTLY...BASED ON THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS...WILL HOLD ONTO THIS TROUGH THROUGH THU MORNING WHEN IT SHOULD MOVE EWD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRES ALSO SLIDES EWD. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW 20 KT BY WED EVENING. GAP WINDS... THERE HAS BEEN NO NEW DATA IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SINCE THE WINDSAT PASS FROM 1210 UTC THIS MORNING WHICH INDICATED WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SO CURRENT PEAK WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE 1558 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SOLID AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO E OF 90W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES IN COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AS A SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER